Here it is. The first ever Half Glass Oscars Mega Blog.
I’m here to give you my winning picks, (which are actually not who I want to win but who I think will actually win. The Academy doesn’t usually see things my way.) Click the links in each category for my picks and awesome words about each.
You know whats better than picks? PROP BETS! So I have a big list of those to help keep you entertained while we struggle through the boring shit before they get to the good categories at 3am.
And to wrap things up I did something special. I went through all 336 movies eligible for the Oscars this year and I put together a little highlight/lowlight package of notable movies from the past year that didn’t get any shine from the Academy. I had to omit some because I’m not positive how many links I can fit into one blog before it crashes.
Best Picture– Moonlight
Best Director– Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Best Actor– Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Best Actress– Emma Stone, La La Land
Best Supporting Actor– Dev Patel, Lion
Best Supporting Actress– Viola Davis, Fences
There are 24 categories in all. I’ll post my full card (with fancy random crits branding!) this afternoon and I’ll tweet it out on the @Random_Crits twitter handle. I’ll be live tweeting the whole night from @_Sheehan_ so follow me so I can feel good about people paying attention to me.
THE PROP BETS
Last Person shown on screen during the annual ‘In Memoriam’ Tribute:
This is always a huge one. Top 3 are Reynolds, Moore, & Fisher. I’m going rouge and predicting the final image on the ‘In Memoriam’ tribute will be of Carrie Fisher AND her mother Debbie Reynolds. I’ve never been more sure about anything in my life, but here are the odds for the rest:
Debbie Reynolds: +300
Mary Tyler Moore: +750
Carrie Fisher: +900
Gene Wilder: +950
Garry Marshall: +950
Leonard Cohen: +950
Robert Vaughn: +1500
George Kennedy: +2000
Michael Cimino: +2750
Andrzej Wajda: +2750
Zsa Zsa Gabor: +3100
Florence Henderson: +3200
Doris Roberts: +3300
Tony Burton: +3300
George Michael: +3500
Charmian Carr: +4000
Burt Kwouk: +4000
Herschell Gordon Lewis: +5000
Bud Spencer: +5000
Abbas Kiarostami: +5000
Paul Cox: +10000
Anton Yelchin: +10000
Malik Taylor: +10000
Alan Thicke: +10000
Will an African American actor/actress win one of the four acting awards? Holy hell,
Can I throw a billion units on YES?
Yes: -1500 No: +750
How many Academy Awards will ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’ win? No clue. Zero?Over 0.5: +200 Under 0.5: -250
Which film will win the most Oscars? Moonlight. Manch will only win 1.
Moonlight: -250 Manchester by the Sea: +210
Will any nominee, winner or presenter take a selfie on stage? I can’t see this happening, selfies aren’t what they used to be. Yes: -150 No: +130
Number of Oscar winners to refer to Donald Trump in their acceptance speech? Hammer that over.
Over 2.5: +110 Under 2.5: -130
Number of Oscar winners to pull out notes for their acceptance speech? Easy money.
Over 1.5: -120 Under 1.5: +100
Number of Oscar winners to exclaim that they ‘didn’t expect to win’ in their acceptance speech? Am I crazy? I feel like there are 5 of these a year.
Over 1.5: +120 Under 1.5: -140
Number of acceptance speeches cut off by ‘the music’? Ok wow this is a tough one. 24 chances to get booted off the stage… I’m going to go with the over.
Over 9.5: +130 Under 9.5: -150
Number of winners that walk the wrong way as they head offstage?
Over 4.5: +130 Under 4.5: -150
Number of times that a presenter, host, nominee or winner mentions Leonardo DiCaprio on stage? My gut says over. Leo in the room commands attention.
Over 2.5 +130 Under 2.5 -150
Will any presenter, host, nominee or winner appear on stage visibly intoxicated? Unfortunately not. This isn’t the Globes… too bad.
Yes: +300 No: -450
Will any Academy Award winner say nothing other than ‘Thank you’ for his/her acceptance speech? The only shot we have is Casey Affleck. He might just burp and wink. But if I’m being honest with myself we wont be that lucky.
Yes: +900 No: -1200
Will a presenter mispronounce the name of a nominee or winner? Have you read the nominee list? It’s more probable than not.
Yes: -180 No: +150
Will any Academy Award winner swear during their acceptance speech (accidentally or not)? 100%
Yes: +110 No: -130
O/U length of longest acceptance speech: 2 minutes
I predict someone will take the mic hostage and have to be dragged off stage while they shout “Make America Decent Again!” OVER
O/U length of shortest acceptance speech: 35 seconds
Believe it or not, some people out there don’t like speaking on national tv. UNDER
Odds on whom Brad Pitt brings as his date
One of his children: 3/2
Kate Hudson: 75/1
Odds on whom Leonardo DiCaprio brings as his date
Nina Agdal: 2/3
BEST OF THE REST
Highlights and notable movies that go overlooked because they’re loved by too many.
The Accountant – tour de force of bad acting. Ben had a bad year, but Jon Lithgow being brought to this level is just sad.
Bad Moms– if you’re a mother or sad woman you’ll love this. If you’re a guy who grew up in love with Mila Kunis on that 70’s show you’ll cry at how old you’ve become
Batman vs Superman– This 5 minute clip sums up the majority of the movie. DC spent a quarter of a BILLION dollars to make a movie that introduced the idea of a “justice league” and set up the franchise… that happened, but then they filled in the remaining 90 minutes with outrageous explosions and nonsense.
The Boss– I’m sorry but I couldn’t let you not see this. This is why people say girls aren’t funny. They don’t have a chance with writing as bad as this.
Brothers Grimsby – Sometimes you need a good, dumb movie. This is an all-timer for that crowd. Watching this scene with tears in my eyes made me feel like a 12 year old and I’ve never been more ok with that. NSFW kinda? It’s fake elephant sex so yeah.
Capt. America Civil War – Marvel has done some incredible things, but the ability to make an Olsen sister hotter than Scarlett Johansson is by far their greatest accomplishment. Also Paul Rudd as Antman is perfect.
Deadpool – Easily my favorite movie of the year. I could sit here and write a book on why it was awesome but I’ll post 2 videos instead. The opening credits sequence is a masterpiece and the whole highway shootout is unreal.
Doctor Strange – Total mind fuck watching this business. Loved it.
Eddie the Eagle – Even though ski jumping is dangerous, it’s still boring. But throw a drunk Wolverine Hugh Jackman into the mix and everything suddenly gets badass.
Edge of Seventeen – Hate your job? Woody Harrelson is all of us.
The Founder – Possibly the most American movie ever made. Hamburgers and giving your business partners the hard screw. That’s how you make it big.
Hail, Caesar! – I wrote about how much I loved this. It’s a weird hybrid. A self-aware throwback. It’s a movie about making bad movies in the 50s and how the studios were a shit show but were able to look glamorous to the outside world.
Hell or High Water – This might be one of my favorite scenes ever.
How to be Single – Big thanks to this movie for giving all the singles an algorithmic excuse to have sex with friends. Bigger thanks to whoever decided the Harlem Shake was ready to come back. Electric.
Independence Day Resurgence – I mean… I don’t have to say it but I will. The best bad movie of 2016. Did we need a sequel 20 years later? No. Was it awesome? YES
Keanu – Did we really get a movie about a kitten named after a bad actor that was stolen by drug dealers which caused his owner to go deep undercover to get it back? Yeah we did. 2016 Fuck Yeah!!
Live by night – I had to. This movie was the last straw in Ben Affleck’s sanity and that deserves recognition. Look at him with his stupid face and his K-mart budget wardrobe. This piece of shit lost the studio $75 million.
The Lobster – From a guy who likes weird movies, this one was too weird for its own good.
London has Fallen – EVERYONE DIES BUT AMERICA SURVIVES! HELL YEAH!! Take that, world.
The Nice Guys – low key one of the funniest movies I’ve ever seen. I give Ryan Gosling shit for being the same character in every movie, but dammit he makes me laugh.
Nocturnal Animals – I can’t rave about this movie enough. The fact that it wasn’t nominated for best picture is a tragedy. There are a lot of great scenes I can’t find online, but I wanted to highlight Michael Shannon being the cockiest cop ever.
Office Christmas Party – just a friendly reminder that sometimes a trailer is so much better than a movie.
Patriots Day – I’m extremely bias but I thought this movie was incredible. Sure it might have been a little early to make a movie about a terrorist attack in 2013 but it was done right so I’m ok with it.
Pride Prejudice and zombies – Never forget that somebody took a 200 year old love story and put zombies in it.
Sausage Party – Who sits around doing enough drugs to come up with an idea like this but still has the mental capacity to follow through and develop it into a movie? Astonishing stuff.
Suicide Squad – Bad story, worse script, but entertaining as hell.
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi – If this movie didn’t get you going then you’re dead inside. I would have NEVER pegged Jim Halpert as a decent soldier in a war movie but he totally pulls it off.
War Dogs – Skinny Jonah Hill being a tough guy buying weed and pulling out an assault rifle would be ok, but Fat Jonah Hill makes it hilarious. But that laugh is awful. Who’d want to be around a guy who laughs like that?
And there we go. That’s my Oscars blog. Everyone place your bets, drink your cocktails, and tweet your hearts out on Sunday night.