The Oscars are ONE WEEK AWAY. I’ve seen all but one of these. Shout out to Movie Pass for being a real thing and saving me hundreds on movie tickets. I’d say sponsor me but I truly don’t understand how they make money. This week I’ll be breaking down each category and wrapping it all up with prop bets and highlights from this year.
Just a reminder of how we do things on this site: I break down each of the 6 major categories and give you the odds-on favorite to win, who I think SHOULD win, and who I think WILL win.
ODDS (UPDATED 2/26)
13/10 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
2/1 The Shape of Water
15/2 Get Out
22/1 Lady Bird
50/1 Call Me By Your Name
80/1 Phantom Thread
100/1 The Post
100/1 Darkest Hour
WHO SHOULD WIN- Lady Bird
This was a tough decision. A lot tougher than deciding who I think will win, because I have a better grasp on how the Oscars work than I do of my own judgement. (nuts, I know) I really loved most of these movies, but I have to go with Lady Bird simply because it hit me the hardest. Get Out was incredible, it struck at exactly the right time. It merged a twilight zone vibe with classic racism and did so without coming off as weird or childish. I loved Three Billboards too but it just didn’t have the “wow” factor that Lady Bird had me with in the theater. It was so relatable. Sometimes a great movie doesn’t need a flashy script, subtle symbolism, or a deeper meaning. All it needs to do is strike a chord with the viewer and Lady Bird certainly did that. It won’t win the Oscar, but if I had a vote I’d throw it in that direction for sure.
WHO WILL WIN- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Honestly, I’m not super confident in this but I’m going with my gut. I had Shape of Water winning up until a couple weeks ago but then Three Billboards won best picture at the BAFTAs. I wouldn’t put any money on this winning, but the rule of thumb generally is when a movie wins Best Picture at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the SAG award for Best Ensemble Cast… it’s going to win the Oscar.
Why am I hesitant? Because despite its overwhelming success this award season, the fact remains that the Oscars don’t typically appreciate a movie as rough and rugged as Three Billboards. The Academy typically gravitates towards a movie with deeper meaning and checks the appropriate social boxes. Shape of Water checks a bunch of boxes. Its unique, something we haven’t really seen before, a love story, stars a disabled person, touches upon homosexuality and racism in the 60s, somehow works the Cold War into it, focuses on irrational fear of the unknown, demonstrates how violence shuts down discussion and discovery, the list goes on and on. It’s a great movie. It’s an Oscar worthy movie. But Three Billboards is getting the hardware and my truthful prediction is it will win again on March 4th.
Filling out that Oscar ballot isn’t about picking who I want to win. It’s about picking winners.
EDITORS NOTE: I scheduled this to publish Monday morning, at which time my odds site decided to update it’s odds… I wrote this while Shape of Water was the favorite to win. Seeing as how the odds have changed, my brain looks less smart and more going with the flow. Dammit. BUT it proves how smart I am.